That said, he believes that Russia’s military commander will quickly adapt to any setbacks. Gen Sir Richard Barrons, a former senior British military commander, says it still appears that the Russians “are going to secure their military objectives quite quickly”.
Gen Barrons says it’s quite clear the initial objectives of Russia’s offensive are to “break the Ukrainian military, remove the central government and annex an element of Ukraine to be absorbed into a wider Russia”.
On some of those goals, Russia appears to have already made progress. It’s made advances from the south. Russian forces have now created a land bridge into Ukraine from Crimea, which they invaded in 2014.
Ed Arnold describes this as a “modest objective”. But from here, they can try to encircle Ukraine’s forces defending in the east.
Some of Ukraine’s most experienced troops are dug in along the line of contact, where they’ve been fighting Russian-backed separatists for the past eight years.
So far, they appear to have bravely fought off Russian efforts to break through their lines from the occupied territories of Donetsk and Luhansk. But they will find it much harder if they become surrounded.
The fact is that a significant portion of Ukraine’s armed forces are already tied down in the fighting and will find it hard to reposition.
Russia has also made significant advances on Kyiv. Taking the capital is the other main objective, not least because it’s the centre of government and leading the resistance.
